$5 /gallon Gas by 2012??

The former President of Shell Oil is saying that Americans could be paying as much at $5 per gallon of gasoline by the year 2012. (Link Here) One other person quoted in the article stated that while he doesn't think that we'll see $5 per gallon by 2012, he does expect it within the next decade. 


What does this mean for Cincinnati?


For starters, the city currently supports no mode of transportation (other than bike) that doesn't run on petroleum-based fuels. This means that the populace is limited to modes that will be getting more and more expensive to operate. What we will see happen is increases in the costs of goods and services in the region. Because most products are delivered to their final destinations via truck, their costs are tied to the cost of transportation and the costs of fuel.


Currently, transportation costs range from under 15% to 20% of a household's annual income (HAI) within the City. Outside the city it ranges from 20%-28%. Housing costs average in the 15%-25% throughout most of the city. (Source) As fuel prices rise, more and more of a HAI will be used for transportation. With housing costs fairly stable currently, these increased costs will eat away at money that would be spend on other goods.

Since we already determined that those other goods are going to also get more expensive, this means that the households are going to have less money to spend on ever-more-expensive goods and services. 


How can we prepare?


The city needs transportation options that run on fuels other than petroleum based diesel and gasoline. Fixed-guideway transit such as streetcars, subway, and lightrail all run on electricity. As gas prices continue to increase, people will look more and more to alternatives to driving for their commuting needs. 


Cincinnati is currently planning on installing what is to be the first phase of a (hopefully) multi-phase multi-modal transportation system. The streetcar will work with existing Metro service to provide incentives for people to live and work in the center city where housing and transit costs are lower. Future projects that are already being explored include Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) along major corridors and additional extensions of the streetcar lines. 


What can you do?


Call, email, snail mail our councilmembers and tell them that you support increased transit options and want transportation to continue to be a priority in this city.  

City Budget - Police & Fire Layoffs

Council: Concessions will save jobs

BY JANE PRENDERGAST • JPRENDERGAST@ENQUIRER.COM • DECEMBER 13, 2010

All 275 Cincinnati police officers and firefighters who face layoffs Jan. 2 could keep their jobs in a deal offered by City Council members Monday - if their unions agree to a total of $20 million in salary cuts and other concessions.

...

Ninety percent of the city's roughly 5,500 workers are represented by unions, a fact City Manager Milton Dohoney has stressed repeatedly as he talks about his proposed $340 million general fund budget that includes the layoffs and a $20 monthly trash collection fee.

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After reading this article from the Enquirer, a couple things struck me:

1. City Council refuses to make the difficult choice to right size the city's police and fire departments.
2. If council is going to ask police for concessions, they should approach ALL city departments with equivalent percentage concessions. This should include themselves. As Quinlavin said in the article, "she is certain her colleagues at the station would have agreed to concessions if management asked for help saving jobs." So she should be willing to help out herself and ask other departments to help if they have determined the police and fire jobs to be that important.

However, despite this, everyone needs to realize that there is no feasible way to cut the budget and fill the gap without some concessions from employes - either in the form of reductions in pay and benefits or from layoffs. 

In the coming week, we are really going to see what Council is made of. There have been a number of new proposals from different groups within council. It going to be interesting.